Role of scenario planning and probabilities in economic decision problems – literature review and new conclusions

Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

Abstract

Purpose – scenario planning is very helpful when the decision maker deals with uncertain issues. Probabilities are also frequently applied to such problems. In the paper, we examine the correctness of combining probabilities with scenario planning in economic decisions which are usually made under uncertainty. The goal of the article is to find and discuss cases where the use of probabilities in scenario planning is appropriate and cases where such an approach is not desirable.
Author Helena Gaspars-Wieloch (WIiGE / KBO)
Helena Gaspars-Wieloch,,
- Department of Operations Research
Pages111-121
Publication size in sheets0.5
Book Stankevičienė Jelena, Skvarciany Viktorija (eds.): International Scientific Conference „Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering'2019" : Conference Proceedings, 2019, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, ISBN 978-609-476-161-4, [978-609-476-162-1], 899 p.
Keywords in Polishplanowanie scenariuszowe, prawdopodobieństwa, macierz wypłat, niepewność, innowacje, preferencje decydenta, decyzje ekonomiczne
Keywords in Englishscenario planning, probabilities, payoff matrix, uncertainty, innovation, decision maker’s preferences, economic decisions
DOIDOI:10.3846/cibmee.2019.011
URL http://cibmee.vgtu.lt/index.php/verslas/2019/paper/viewFile/422/123
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)5
Score sourcepublisherList
ScoreMinisterial score = 5.0, 12-03-2020, ChapterFromConference
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