Macroeconomic Forecast Relevance in the Central Bank’s Decisions. The Case of European Economies
Magdalena Szyszko , Aleksandra Rutkowska
AbstractWe examine central banks’ involvement in inflation forecast targeting by means of an index-based analysis and ordered logistic regression. The research encompasses the Bank of England, the Czech National Bank, the National Bank of Poland and the Sveriges Riksbank. They produce conditional or unconditional macroeconomic forecasts. Hence, two paths have been used to examine them. We examine whether the four central banks follow their forecasts to some extent. We have found that the CNB and SR are highly consistent in terms of compatibility of their decisions with the forecasts, timing of decisions, and communication by means of forecasts. The NBP follows its forecast much less consistently, while the BoE ignores it altogether. As some of the results for the BoE and NBP are unambiguous, we remain cautious while interpreting them. This paper contributes to the literature on the empirical evaluation of inflation forecast targeting.
|Journal series||Prague Economic Papers, ISSN 1210-0455, e-ISSN 2336-730X, (N/A 40 pkt)|
|Publication size in sheets||0.9|
|Keywords in Polish||zasady decyzji banków centralnych, celowanie w prognozę inflacji, prognozy makroekonomiczne|
|Keywords in English||inflation forecast targeting, macroeconomic forecasts, central bank decision rules|
|Score||= 40.0, 14-04-2020, ArticleFromJournal|
|Publication indicators||= 0; : 2018 = 0.712; : 2017 = 0.409 (2) - 2017=0.557 (5)|
|Uwagi||Published online: 12.03.2019|
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.