Macroeconomic Forecast Relevance in the Central Bank’s Decisions. The Case of European Economies

Magdalena Szyszko , Aleksandra Rutkowska

Abstract

We examine central banks’ involvement in inflation forecast targeting by means of an index-based analysis and ordered logistic regression. The research encompasses the Bank of England, the Czech National Bank, the National Bank of Poland and the Sveriges Riksbank. They produce conditional or unconditional macroeconomic forecasts. Hence, two paths have been used to examine them. We examine whether the four central banks follow their forecasts to some extent. We have found that the CNB and SR are highly consistent in terms of compatibility of their decisions with the forecasts, timing of decisions, and communication by means of forecasts. The NBP follows its forecast much less consistently, while the BoE ignores it altogether. As some of the results for the BoE and NBP are unambiguous, we remain cautious while interpreting them. This paper contributes to the literature on the empirical evaluation of inflation forecast targeting.
Author Magdalena Szyszko - Wyższa Szkoła Bankowa w Poznaniu
Magdalena Szyszko,,
-
, Aleksandra Rutkowska (WIiGE / KMS)
Aleksandra Rutkowska,,
- Department of Applied Mathematics
Journal seriesPrague Economic Papers, ISSN 1210-0455, e-ISSN 2336-730X, (N/A 40 pkt)
Issue year2019
Vol28
No3
Pages257-275
Publication size in sheets0.9
Keywords in Polishzasady decyzji banków centralnych, celowanie w prognozę inflacji, prognozy makroekonomiczne
Keywords in English inflation forecast targeting, macroeconomic forecasts, central bank decision rules
ASJC Classification2002 Economics and Econometrics; 2003 Finance
DOIDOI:10.18267/j.pep.711
URL https://www.vse.cz/pep/711
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)40
Score sourcejournalList
ScoreMinisterial score = 40.0, 14-04-2020, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators WoS Citations = 0; Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2018 = 0.712; WoS Impact Factor: 2017 = 0.409 (2) - 2017=0.557 (5)
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UwagiPublished online: 12.03.2019
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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