Consumers' Inflation Expectations In The Eu Countries. Does The Crisis Affect Their Forward-Lookingness?

Aleksandra Rutkowska , Magdalena Szyszko

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the forward-lookingness (FL) of consumers' expectations prior to and after the Great Recession in 18 EU Member States: 10 euro area members and 8 countries with national currencies. We hypothesize that despite the enhanced transparency of central banks during the crisis, the FL of expectations has not increased in the post-crisis period when compared with the pre-crisis circumstances. To verify this hypothesis, we (1) rejected the rationality of expectations in the countries under examination and we (2) estimated the hybrid specification of expectations for the whole sample (2001/02-2016), the pre-crisis period (until October 2008) and the post-crisis period (from 2010). The obtained results are ambiguous: in some countries, we found that FL increased while in other it decreased. With respect to some other countries we were not able to estimate any hybrid specification of expectations.
Author Aleksandra Rutkowska (WIiGE / KMS)
Aleksandra Rutkowska,,
- Department of Applied Mathematics
, Magdalena Szyszko - Wyższa Szkoła Bankowa w Poznaniu
Magdalena Szyszko,,
-
Pages614-621
Publication size in sheets0.5
Book Slavíčková Petra (eds.): Knowledge for Market Use 2017: People in Economics - Decisions, Behavior and Normative Models. International Scientific Conference Proceedings, 2017, Palacký Universit, ISBN 978-80-244-5233-3, 1179 p.
Keywords in EnglishInflation expectations; expectations' forward-lookingness; monetary policy; crisis
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)15
Score sourceconferenceIndex
ScoreMinisterial score = 15.0, 13-02-2020, ChapterFromConference
Publication indicators WoS Citations = 0
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