The air transport market in Central and Eastern Europe after a decade of liberalisation – Different paths of growth

Jacek Jankiewicz , Sonia Huderek-Glapska

Abstract

This paper describes the changes which are taking place in air transport for the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia in the context of liberalisation. It also attempts to identify the common and specific factors that influence these processes in different markets of the region. The indicators for the development of the aviation market were designed using, among other things, statistics describing the infrastructure facilities and the level of activity in the market. Composite indicators and the weights for their individual components were constructed using a Multidimensional Comparative Analysis. The conditions under which changes were taking place in Central and Eastern European Countries were described with the help of selected socio-economic panel data. Finally, One-Way Fixed Effects and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) models describing the development of the aviation markets were estimated. The adopted procedure made it possible to identify the most important common and specific factors that exerted the greatest influence on the situation of air transport in CEE Countries. The very initiation of the liberalisation process undoubtedly had a significantly beneficial effect on the development of route networks and aviation activities as broadly understood. However, the pace of change depended not only on the progress of liberalisation itself, but also on the diverse socio-economic conditions in the individual countries. As a result of the analysis, the markets were divided into two separate groups, which in many respects are distinctly different from each other. The results of the estimation models also showed that there are strong unobservable determinants of development which are specific to individual countries.