A decision rule based on goal programming and one-stage models for uncertain multi-criteria mixed decision making and games against nature

Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

Abstract

This paper is concerned with games against nature and multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty along with scenario planning. We focus on decision problems where a deterministic evaluation of criteria is not possible. The procedure we propose is based on weighted goal programming and may be applied when seeking a mixed strategy. A mixed strategy allows the decision maker to select and perform a weighted combination of several accessible alternatives. The new method takes into consideration the decision maker’s preference structure (importance of particular goals) and nature (pessimistic, moderate or optimistic attitude towards a given problem). It is designed for one-shot decisions made under uncertainty with unknown probabilities (frequencies), i.e for decision making under complete uncertainty or decision making under strategic uncertainty. The procedure refers to one-stage models, i.e. models considering combinations of scenarios and criteria (scenario-criterion pairs) as distinct meta-attributes, which means that the novel approach can be used in the case of totally independent payoff matrices for particular targets. The algorithm does not require any information about frequencies, which is especially desirable for new decision problems. It can be successfully applied by passive decision makers, as only criteria weights and the coefficient of optimism have to be declared.
Author Helena Gaspars-Wieloch (WIiGE / KBO)
Helena Gaspars-Wieloch,,
- Department of Operations Research
Journal seriesCroatian Operational Research Review, ISSN 1848-0225, e-ISSN 1848-9931, (0 pkt, indicated Indexes)
Issue year2017
Vol8
No1
Pages61-76
Publication size in sheets0.75
Keywords in Englishuncertainty, multi-criteria decision making, goal programming, games against nature, mixed strategies, one-stage models, one-shot decisions
DOIDOI:10.17535/crorr.2017.0004
URL https://hrcak.srce.hr/ojs/index.php/crorr/article/view/4599/2864
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)15
Score sourcejournalIndex
ScoreMinisterial score = 15.0, 12-03-2020, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators WoS Citations = 1
Citation count*6 (2020-10-20)
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