System dynamics and mathematical method application for the strategic foresight

Agnieszka Ziomek , Krzysztof Piasecki

Abstract

In a rapidly changing environment, it becomes extremely important to anticipate future changes and developments. A key element of strategic action and policy-making is now to recognise the possibility of alternative futures, and to implement strategy that makes the best alternative possible. The policy making in this era also needs to be based on systematically gathered information with the active participation of all the stakeholders. All this refers to active planning method named strategic foresight. However, environment makes the business run very sophisticated, so forecasting with strategic foresight method still brings uncertainty about selection of the optimal scenario. That is why dynamic and multi-causal systems are typical attributes to describe the multi version storylines of the future performance and to set variables trends. To decrease a risk of a wrong scenario selection we employ methods of mathematics for fuzzy systems. In the paper the case study will be done. On the basis of the business example, system dynamics model will be simulated. The elementary computation will be prepared for the next step of analysis. Finally, authors use to selection procedure. The expected result is to find 3 scenarios respectively to applied criterion. The aim of this study is to present the way of application dynamic and mathematical tools into strategic foresight work. Foresight analysts often have problems with the right choice. To avoid these troubles it is worth to involve tools which give well solution to strategic planning problem.
Author Agnieszka Ziomek (WE / KPGiS)
Agnieszka Ziomek,,
- Department of Economic and Local Government Policy
, Krzysztof Piasecki (WZ / KIiN)
Krzysztof Piasecki,,
- Department of Investment and Real Estate
Journal seriesSSRN Electronic Journal, ISSN 1556-5068, (0 pkt)
Issue year2015
No6
Pages1-18
Publication size in sheets0.65
Keywords in Englishscenario planning, strategic management, fuzzy set, system dynamics
DOIDOI:10.2139/ssrn.2614110
URL http://ssrn.com/abstract=2614110
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)5
Score sourcejournalList
ScoreMinisterial score = 0.0, 08-01-2020, ArticleFromJournal
Ministerial score (2013-2016) = 5.0, 08-01-2020, ArticleFromJournal
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