On a decision rule supported by a forecasting stage based on the decision maker’s coefficient of optimism

Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

Abstract

The paper contains a description of a new approach (called the SF + AS method, i.e. the scenario forecasting + alternative selection method) that can be used in decision making under uncertainty when pure optimal strategies are sought-after. This procedure takes into consideration the level of decision maker’s coefficient of optimism (or coefficient of pessimism) and consists of two stages: the true scenario forecasting (on the basis of the decision maker’s preferences) and the appropriate alternative selection by taking into account the payoffs of the appointed true scenario or the most probable scenarios. In contradiction to existing decision rules, this procedure assumes that the decision making process should involve only a part of the payoff matrix because only one state of nature will occur in the end. The second essential difference between the SF + AS method and other decision rules is that in the first one there is an attempt to appoint globally the best and the worst scenario (regardless the alternative considered). Meanwhile, other procedures determine the status of a given event depending on the decision.
Author Helena Gaspars-Wieloch (WIiGE / KBO)
Helena Gaspars-Wieloch,,
- Department of Operations Research
Journal seriesCentral European Journal of Operations Research, ISSN 1435-246X, (A 20 pkt)
Issue year2015
Vol23
No3
Pages579-594
Publication size in sheets0.75
Keywords in EnglishDecision making; Uncertainty; Pure strategy, True scenarioforecasting; Coefficient of optimism; Coefficient of pessimism
ASJC Classification1803 Management Science and Operations Research
DOIDOI:10.1007/s10100-014-0364-5
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)20
Score sourcejournalList
ScoreMinisterial score = 20.0, 23-12-2019, ArticleFromJournal
Ministerial score (2013-2016) = 20.0, 23-12-2019, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators WoS Citations = 6; Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2015 = 1.137; WoS Impact Factor: 2015 = 0.978 (2) - 2015=1.005 (5)
Citation count*20 (2020-01-19)
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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