Inflation expectations after financial crisis: are consumers more forward-looking?

Magdalena Szyszko , Aleksandra Rutkowska , Agata Kliber

Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether consumer inflation expectations in the E.U. Member States (M.S.) were more forward-looking after the onset of the financial crisis (October 2008–2016) and after the most turbulent times (2013–2016). We compare the results with pre-crisis forward-lookingness (2002–September 2008). Our examination covers the euro area and M.S. with national currencies. We study the properties of expectations, i.e., expectational errors, and macroeconomic efficiency of expectations, as well as estimating the hybrid specification of expectations. We examine panel data. We found that the properties of expectations changed after the crisis sparked off and in the low inflation and deflation environment. We also discovered that formation patterns of expectations within the euro area subsample and non-euro area M.S. sample vary. As far as we know, so far no comparison of expectations properties, especially forward-lookingness among M.S. with and without common monetary policy, has been presented in the literature nor were panel data examined for the post-crisis period. Hence, the paper contributes to the literature on the properties of expectations in the E.U.
Author Magdalena Szyszko - Wyższa Szkoła Bankowa w Poznaniu
Magdalena Szyszko,,
-
, Aleksandra Rutkowska (WIiGE / KMS)
Aleksandra Rutkowska,,
- Department of Applied Mathematics
, Agata Kliber (WIiGE / KMS)
Agata Kliber,,
- Department of Applied Mathematics
Journal seriesEkonomska Istrazivanja-Economic Research, [Ekonomska Istrazivanja-Economic Research], ISSN 1331-677X, e-ISSN 1848-9664, (N/A 70 pkt)
Issue year2020
Vol33
No1
Pages1052-1072
Publication size in sheets1
ConferenceGlobal Economy & Governance, 22-10-2017 - 24-10-2017, Warszawa, Polska
Keywords in Polishoczekiwania inflacyjne, własności oczekiwań, kryzys finansowy, dane panelowe
Keywords in EnglishConsumer expectations, expectation properties, forward-lookingness, financial crisis, panel data
ASJC Classification2002 Economics and Econometrics
DOIDOI:10.1080/1331677X.2019.1595083
URL https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1595083
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)70
Score sourcejournalList
ScoreMinisterial score = 70.0, 01-06-2020, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2018 = 0.775; WoS Impact Factor: 2017 = 1.137 (2) - 2017=0.839 (5)
Citation count*2 (2020-07-06)
Additional fields
UwagiFirst online: 10 Jul 2019
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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